Welcome to the FOURTH edition of Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out. For each UFC fight, I’ll be giving you 2 fights that look like great bets, and 2 fights to stay away from. Additionally, I’ll throw a 4 fight parlay in there as well. We are now switching over to 5Dimes book for the purpose of this column.
There will be a small change to this week’s format. This week’s will be a 3 fight parlay instead, because I just don’t feel like there’s a 4th fight worth throwing into the parlay. Without further ado, here we go.
UFC on FX 4’s results: TERRIBLE!
Thoughts: Both Fukuda and Alessio started strong but faded fast, losing both of my bets. Furthermore, for the second card in a row an injury blew up my parlay. This time it was to Doug Hyun Kim, breaking a rib in the first round of his fight against Demian Maia. Let’s see if we can fare better this week!
Renan Barao (-190) over Uriah Faber (+165)
Thoughts: Look, a main event that I can recommend a play on! I absolutely love Barao in this fight. First, the guy is an animal. Brutal standup, great submission game, and a killer instinct. Second, I just can’t seem to find what Uriah Faber brings to this fight. In the standup department, Faber is improved but is severely overmatched against Barao. Faber’s biggest strength is his wrestling, but I strongly doubt whether or not he’ll be able to take Barao down. Nova Uniao fighters are notorious for their incredible takedown defense, and Barao does not appear to be an exception. When Faber fought fellow Nova Uniao fighter Jose Aldo, he was unable to take the fight to the ground. Aldo ended up destroying him with leg kicks. I expect this fight to play out the same way over five painful rounds. Furthermore, even if Faber was to be successful with his takedown attempts he would have to deal with Barao’s monster ground game. No matter how you slice it, Barao should win this fight handily.
DON’T BET THIS:
Tim Boetsch (+310) over Hector Lombard (-370)
Thoughts: A lot of people love Boetsch as an underdog here due to the perception that Lombard has padded his record fighting cans outside of the UFC. This line of thought may very well be correct. It is difficult to find a quality win on Lombard’s record. The problem lies in that Boetsch may be a bit overrated as well. He was getting completely outclassed standing by a very limited standup fighter in Yushin Okami before mounting a miracle comeback for the ages. Take that win off his record, and you’re left with a guy who has never shown a ground game, has lost to all top competition he’s faced and has beaten up on a couple subpar UFC fighters. The truth is, Lombard has physical advantages everywhere in this fight. However, due to the long odds, his questionable competition and equally questionable cardio prevent me from wanting to lay a bet on Lombard either. Do not bet this fight.
Court McGee (+100) over Nick ring (-140)
Thoughts: I know that the odds here aren’t “sexy”, but I see a lot of value here on McGee. McGee was better when they first fought on The Ultimate Fighter, despite Ring getting the not in the decision. The truth is, Ring had a fast start in that fight but faded fast, and McGee was in complete control by the end. It should have gone to sudden victory, where McGee most likely would have finished the fight. Since that show, I believe that Mcgee has improved and Ring has regressed. McGee’s only loss was against a very promising up and coming fighter in Constantinos Phillippou. Nick Ring on the other hand, looked completely outclassed in his loss to Tim Boetsch, and was gifted a terrible decision against Riki Fukuda in a fight Fukuda dominated. Additionally, his only win of note was against a guy that shouldn’t be in the UFC in James Head. More on him later.
DON’T BET THIS:
Shawn Jordan (-120) over Cheick Kongo (+100)
Thoughts: This line insinuates a pick’em fight, and that’s how I see it. Shawn Jordan is an intriguing prospect, and at this point in his career probably has better skills than Kongo. Hasn’t looked good in any of his last 3 fights, and there’s little reason to think he will look good here either. However, Jordan has several factors working against him. First, he’s taking this fight on short notice. Second, he’s relatively inexperienced, with only one UFC fight under his belt. Third, he’s giving up a ton of height and reach to Kongo. The combination of these factors make this fight very unpredictable for me, which means I will be staying away from it.
Fenichel’s 3 Fight Parlay – Barao+Ebersole+Pineda
Renan Barao over Uriah Faber – no further explanation needed.
Brian Ebersole over James Head – Head has no business in the UFC. He has been submitted by lesser ground fighters than Ebersole in the past. I expect Ebersole to easily handle him, either by submission or by dominating decision victory.
Daniel Pineda v Antonio Carvalho – The problem Carvalho is going to have in this fight is that he is overmatched in the only area he excels in (the ground game). Pineda will have his way wherever the fight takes place, battering him on the feet or dominating him on the ground.
That’s it for the fourth installment of Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out. Enjoy the fights guys.
(David Fenichel is the CEO of Fenichel’s Fantasy Fight League. The new season starts July 1st, with the winner getting two tickets to the UFC, including hotel and airfare. You can sign up for the new season at FantasyMMAworld.com)