MLB Futures: NL Central Trio could make History this Season
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | June 26, 2013
For the 1969 season, Major League Baseball changed to a two-division format in both the American and National Leagues. In 1994, MLB expanded each league to three divisions. So that’s 44 seasons of divisional play. And never have three teams from the same division finished with the three-best records in all of baseball. That could change in 2013.
Entering this week, the St. Louis Cardinals led the NL Central with the best record in the game, followed closely by second-place Pittsburgh and third-place Cincinnati. The Cards are given a 96.6% chance of making the playoffs, with the Reds at 74.8% and the Pirates at 70%. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a winning season since its last playoff berth in 1992, the longest current streak of consecutive losing seasons in major American sports.
St. Louis is the even-money favorite at Bovada to win the Central, which it hasn’t done since 2009. Cincinnati is +140 to win its third division title in the past four years. Pittsburgh is +300 to win a division it never has.
Prior to 2012 three teams from one division couldn’t all reach the playoffs, but that changed with the advent of the second wild-card spot in each league. St. Louis does look like the majors’ best team with the only run differential in triple-digits. It ranks second to Colorado in the NL in runs and is tied with Atlanta for the best ERA in the majors. Catcher Yadier Molina is a leading NL MVP candidate, ace Adam Wainwright is in the Cy Young mix and pitcher Shelby Miller is the NL Rookie of the Year leader. The Cardinals are 3/1 NL pennant favorites and 7/1 to win the World Series, behind only the Tigers (6/1). St. Louis won the 2011 World Series over Texas as a wild-card team.
Cincinnati has its own MVP candidate in Joey Votto and is No. 3 in the National League in runs. It ranks fourth in the NL in ERA, second in shutouts and second in quality starts. Those numbers are surprising when you consider that ace Johnny Cueto has missed much of the season on the disabled list. No Reds starter has an ERA higher than 3.80 and Cincinnati has the most overpowering closer in baseball in Aroldis Chapman. The Reds are 11/2 to win the pennant and 12/1 to win the World Series. Cincinnati hasn’t won a title since 1990.
Pittsburgh looked like a playoff-caliber team for a while last season. The Pirates were 60-44 on August 1, 2012, but then went 19-39 the rest of the way. Could it happen again? The pitching staff is strong, ranking No. 3 in the NL in ERA and leading the league with 12 shutouts and as a .227 opponents’ batting average. Closer Jason Grilli has been untouchable.
Offensively, the Pirates leave much to be desired outside of All-Star outfielder Andrew McCutchen. The team doesn’t have a regular batting .300. Only Pedro Alvarez has double-digit homers (19) but he’s hitting in the .230s and strikes out a ton. Pittsburgh does have a strong farm system to make a deal for a hitter. The Pirates are 9/1 to win the pennant for the first time since 1979 and 18/1 to win the World Series.
Even if the NL Central has just two teams with the best records in the majors at the end of the season it would be something. A division has housed the top two teams only seven times overall and not since the AL West in 2001.
Bet on 2013 MLB futures at Bovada.
