NY METS vs BALTIMORE ORIOLES
PICK: METS ML -125
PICK: METS -0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -105
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 6:35 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: HOLMES (RHP) v YOUNG (RHP)
RESULT:
The odds for tonight’s Mets-Orioles game are puzzlingly close, especially considering the pitching matchup. Clay Holmes (NYM: 8-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 17 starts) is a far more reliable option than Brandon Young (BAL: 0-3, 7.02 ERA, 1.98 WHIP in 4 starts).
Young has been consistently bad, failing to complete five innings in any of his four starts and surrendering at least three runs in each. Holmes, conversely, has been solid, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in his last five outings, including three starts where he yielded only one run. The betting line seems to ignore Young’s high WHIP and inability to pitch deep into games, which puts immediate pressure on Baltimore’s bullpen (4.50 ERA, 25th in MLB). The Mets bullpen is much better (3.83 ERA, 13th in MLB).
Given these dynamics, the Mets First Five Innings (F5) -0.5 at -105 is the most attractive play, removing any bullpen variables even though Baltimore is at a distinct disadvantage, so we’re also playing the full game ML. The -1.5 (+125) is worth a look for a parlay inclusion.
ATLANTA BRAVES vs ATHLETICS
PICK: OVER 10.0 -120
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 10:05 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: FUENTES (RHP) v SPRINGS (LHP)
RESULT:
Tonight in Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, expect runs. The ballpark has consistently played as a bandbox, frequently seeing game totals push past 10, especially with subpar pitching and favorable weather. While Sutter Health Park’s overall park factor for 2024 was neutral, the current conditions are key.
For the Athletics, Jeffrey Springs (6-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 16 starts) takes the mound. While he’s been decent, he’s not an ace, and the A’s have struggled with run prevention at home, allowing 279 runs this season (second-most in MLB only trailing Colorado) and leading the league in home runs allowed with 133. The average total runs scored in A’s home games this season is an elevated 10.5.
Opposing Springs is Didier Fuentes (0-2, 9.00 ERA, 1.83 WHIP in 3 starts) for the Atlanta Braves. Fuentes has had a very rocky start to his MLB career, failing to complete 5 innings in any of his starts and consistently giving up runs. While the Braves’ offense (39-50 record, .243 team BA, 21st in MLB) hasn’t been as potent as previous seasons, a trip to Sacramento’s hitter-friendly confines could provide the jolt they need.
The weather further supports an OVER: it’s a clear, hot night (34°C, feels like 39°C), with winds blowing out to center field at 10 MPH. This combination of weak pitching on both sides (especially Fuentes’ struggles and Springs’ decent-but-not-elite form), a park that can play small, and ideal hitting conditions creates a strong formula for a high-scoring game.
OTHER PLAYS
TORONTO BLUEJAYS vs CHICAGO WHITE SOX
PICK: JAYS -1.5 (-120)
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 7:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: BASSITT (RHP) v CIVALE (RHP)
RESULT:
CHICAGO CUBS vs MINNESOTA TWINS
PICK: CUBS -1.5 (+125)
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 7:40 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: IMANAGA (LHP) v RICHARDSON (RHP)
RESULT:
2025 SEASON RECORD
OVERALL 31-15
BEST BETS 18-8
NO LINES BELOW -140
DEFINITIONS
ML = MONEYLINE (Final winner of the game with no point spread)
RL = RUN LINE (Spread of 1.5 runs)
ADJUSTED RUN LINE / ALTERNATE RUN LINE – At Bovada, it’s called ALTERNATE RUN LINE and at BetOnline, it’s called the ADJUSTED RUN LINE. At Bovada, there are several options of spreads to choose from. At BOL, you get + or – 2.5 runs instead of the standard -1.5.
TT = Team Total
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