How to Bet NFL Preseason Games – Sports Betting Strategy
Football season is finally here. NFL preseason games may not count in the standings, but you can still bet on them – and money doesn’t discriminate. The point spread, moneyline and totals work just the same in August as they do for the Super Bowl.
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The games themselves are different, though, so you’ll need a different approach when you’re betting on the NFL preseason. Winning and losing aren’t nearly as important in exhibition play; these are dress rehearsals for the regular season, and it’s a lot easier to “predict” what will happen in a dress rehearsal. If you know what to look for, that is.
Flying Coach
The NFL preseason is all about the head coaches. Right now, they’re the ones running the ship, working on plays and evaluating talent. Every coach has his own routine for getting through August; unlike the regular season, there’s no incentive to switch up these routines for competitive purposes. Whatever a coach is doing this week, he’s going to do it again next week.
This is the main reason why exhibition games are easier to pick. You get a lot more predictive power from a coach’s NFL preseason records than you do the rest of the year; the larger the sample size, the better. For example, Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has one of the best preseason records in the league at 29-15-1 ATS. Carroll has been blessed with a deep talent pool, but he also takes these exhibition games more seriously than most coaches. He prefers lighter training camp sessions with little contact, then he’ll use his starters more during the preseason and get them used to playing hard.
Back Me Up Here
Harder play usually means more scoring, too – the over is 24-21 with Carroll at the helm. But Carroll was a free safety in college before rising up the ranks as a defensive coach. For the really big over numbers, look for coaches with a background in offense. Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy (over 30-14) was a tight end in college. Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak (over 25-13-2) was John Elway’s back-up quarterback for nine years.
Speaking of back-up quarterbacks, you can increase your betting edge by looking at the depth charts and getting familiar with these players. Starting quarterbacks don’t play much during preseason games, especially early on. Again, some coaches like to use their regular starters more than others. They’ll even tell the press in advance which players will be used, although that level of openness has declined in recent years. By anticipating which quarterbacks will play, you can get a leg up on the competition – and you’ll be more prepared for the regular season, when the starters get injured and the back-ups are thrust into the spotlight.
