:: FREE UFC 148 Picks ::
Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out

Welcome to the THIRD edition of Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out.  For each UFC fight, I’ll be giving you 2 fights that look like great bets, and 2 fights to stay away from.  Additionally, I’ll throw a 4 fight parlay in there as well.  As always, we use Bovada’s odds to make this happen. Without further ado, here we go.

Results from UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147: Excellent

Though it wasn’t easy, both Maynard and Franklin came through in the end.  Additionally, not betting Stout v Fisher at those odds was clearly the right decision, as that fight was razor close.  The parlay of Maynard/Miller/Catone/Ferreira only missed as a result of a freak cut to Nick Catone’s head in a fight he was winning handily.  All in all, a successful venture!

UFC 148 PICKS

Bet this: Riki Fukuda (+150) over Constantinos Phillippou (-185)
Thoughts: For the life of me, I cannot understand this betting line.  Yes, CP has looked good against so so competition, and appears to be heavy handed.  However, if you look closer, things are not as they appear.  Phillippou has been tentative with his striking against good wrestlers in the past, and that’s exactly what he has in front of him in Fukuda.  Additionally, Fukuda is a relentless pressuring fighter, and CP is known for fading late in fights.  With this being considered, I think the line should have been even money, or a slight edge towards Fukuda.  +165 is way too good to pass up.

Don’t bet this: Anderson Silva (-300) v Chael Sonnen (+230)
Thoughts: Here I go again, steering you away from betting on a main event fight.  If you are reading this column, you probably don’t need me to tell you who either of these guys are, or what they bring to the table.  A lot of other people are betting Chael Sonnen hard in this fight, but I will caution you against it.  Sure, he dominated the first fight for 4 ½ rounds before getting submitted.  However, there are several reasons to think the same won’t happen in the rematch.  First, Silva was injured going into that fight, and it was apparent that he was not the same fighter that he’s been in the majority of his other fights.  Second, I believe that Silva is far more likely to make adjustments in this fight than Sonnen.  Sonnen is going to try to do the exact same thing that he did the last fight.  I don’t buy into the hype that Sonnen’s submission defense has improved, and I think that even if all goes well, he’ll still be in the danger zone for 5 rounds.  More than anything though, Sonnen just didn’t look impressive in his last win over Michael Bisbing.  I believe that Silva will take this rematch, and it won’t be nearly as close as the first fight. However, at -300, I can’t justify a bet here.

Bet this: John Alessio (+160) over Shane Roller (+200)
Thoughts: The truth is, there isn’t a second bet on this card that seems like a no brainer.  This is the closest thing to what appears to be good value.  Historically, Shane Roller has been a much better fighter than John Alessio. However, Roller has looked absolutely horrendous since coming to the UFC.  He looked terrible on his feet against both Michael Johnson and Melvin Guilliard.  He looked equally terrible on the ground against TJ Grant.  His one strength generally is his wrestling, but it has been ineffective against anyone as of late.  While John Alessio isn’t a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, he’s a solid fighter that’s very well rounded.  I can see him giving Roller trouble wherever this fight goes, and eventually finishing him.

Don’t bet this: Forrest Griffin (-325) v Tito Ortiz (+250)
Thoughts: Forrest Griffin should win this fight.  However, he’s coming off of a long layoff, and you just don’t know what you’re going to get from him.  Additionally, there are rumors that his desire to keep fighting is not there anymore.  He enjoys physical advantages over Tito anywhere that this fight goes, and at this stage in their careers should win much more easily than in fight 2.  However, at -325, there are too many question marks to justify taking a bet here.  I think I’ll throw this one in the parlay.

Fenichel’s 4 fight Parlay – Forrest Griffin + Dong Hyun Kim + Chad Mendes + Melvin Guillard

• Griffin over Ortiz – Not good enough odds to bet on it, but more than good enough for a parlay.
• Dong Hyun Kim over Demian Maia – Kim’s wrestling should dictate where this fight goes, and he enjoys a big edge in the standup game. Maia has shown cardio issues and hasn’t submitted anyone in 3 years. Deceptively easy fight for Kim.
• Chad Mendes over Cody Mckenzie – There’s a reason he’s at -600 here. Huge talent gap difference here, and it will show.
• Melvin Guillard over Fabricio Camoes – This should play out a lot like Kim v Maia. Camoe’s wrestling isn’t good enough to take Guillard down, and he should be able to finish him on his feet in explosive fashion.

(David Fenichel is the CEO of Fenichel’s Fantasy Fight League.  The new season started on July 1st, with the winner getting two tickets to the UFC, including hotel and airfare.  You can sign up for the new season at FantasyMMAworld.com)