Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out
Free MMA/UFC Betting Predictions

Welcome to the second installment of Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out.  Each week, I’ll be breaking down the upcoming UFC card, and giving you 2 fights to bet on, 2 fights to stay away from, and a 4 fight parlay to take a stab at.  I’ll be using Bovada’s odds to base my bets off of.  This week, we will be covering 2 cards in UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147, as they take place on back to back nights.

Results from UFC on FX 3:

Dave’s bets: 1-1

Dave’s Parlay – Train wreck.

Thoughts:  It was a mixed bag of results here.  Sean Pierson came through as an underdog and pretty much dominated the fight with Jake Hecht in the manner that I thought he would.  Charlie Brenneman was doing the same to Erick Silva before he got caught coming in and finished quickly.  With all of that being said, my 4 fight parlay of Pyle/Jorgensen/Martinez/Papazian was a complete disaster.  While Mike Pyle and Henry Martinez came through in victory, Jorgensen ran into a much improved buzzsaw in Eddie Wineland and Jared Papazian showed next to no ground game in a quick submission loss to Dustin Pague.  We’ll chalk this one up to first day jitters.

Moving on, I believe that the cards this weekend provide FAR more value from a betting standpoint than last weekend.  Unlike UFC on FX 3, both UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 appear to have some mismatches that are not reflected in the current odds.  Whereas I advised you to stay away from the main event of last week’s card, I believe that the two main events this weekend provide strong opportunities to make some money.  Without further ado, here we go:

UFC ON FX 4 & UFC 147 PICKS

Gray Maynard (-315) over Clay Guida (+245)

Thoughts: Yes.  The odds here are relatively steep.  The truth is, I don’t care.  I don’t see a single area in which Clay Guida can win this fight.  Clay Guida is a one dimensional fighter.  He wants to take you down, and hold you there for the duration of the fight.  The problem is, Gray Maynard is a much better wrestler than Guida.  If the fight is going to the ground, it’s because Maynard wants it to be there.  I believe that Gray has a decided edge in the standup battle as well.  There is a big power edge to Gray, as Guida has never shown the ability to hurt anyone with his strikes.  Maynard on the other hand, has rocked Frankie Edgar badly in both of their last two fights, and has shown bigger power in previous fights before that.  Furthermore, Guida’s chin has failed him in the past.  He has been dropped by both Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, neither of whom possess nearly the knockout power of Maynard.  I believe that the only reason this line is so low is that people are overstating the supposedly cardio advantage that Guida has in this fight.  I don’t believe that cardio will even come into play here, as Maynard has the ability to control wherever the fight goes, and hurt Guida badly both standing and via ground and pound.  Even at -315, Maynard is easy money here.

DON’T BET THIS:

Sam Stout (-335) v Spencer Fisher (+255)

Thoughts: These two have fought twice before, each “winning” one fight.  I put winning in quotes because almost no one other than the judges thought Stout won the first fight.  With this type of past history and these odds, it might seem like a no brainer to bet the underdog here.  I’m going to advise you against that.  The truth is, Spencer Fisher is a shell of what he used to be, and Stout is a much better fighter than he used to be.  Fisher is talking about retirement, whereas Stout still thinks he can contend for a title at 155.  At this stage in their careers, this is a fight that Stout should win handily.  With that being said, I still don’t view Stout as an elite level talent.  Combine this with the fact that these two are so familiar with each other, it would be very hard to justify betting on Stout at these odds either.  Stay away from this fight.

BET THIS:

Rich Franklin (-170) d Wanderlei Silva (+140)

Thoughts: I think the love for Wanderlei has skewed the general perception of how this fight is going to play out.  Their first fight was an incredibly entertaining, fight of the year caliber fight.  Yes, it was a very close fight, a fight Franklin barely managed to win.  However, there are a lot of reasons to think this fight will not be NEARLY as close.  First and foremost, the majority of fight fans think that both of these men are very far past their prime.  I only believe it to be true for Silva.  Silva got KO’d be Chris Leben and looked awful against a bad fighter in Cung Le before Le completely ran out of gas.  For years he masked poor technique and terrible defense was raw power and speed.  While it’s debatable if the power is still there, the speed clearly isn’t.  He’s been a punching bag for his last two opponents, and I see no reason to think this will be any different.

On the other hand, how far has Rich Franklin really fallen?  Let’s take a look at his past five fights.  He lost a decision to Dan Henderson that most people think he won.  He beat Silva in their first fight.  He got KO’d by Vitor Belfort, a fighter with scary speed and power.  Vitor is capable of doing that to just about anyone, and I don’t think you can downgrade Franklin just because he got caught.  He knocked out Chuck Liddell and put him into retirement.  Most recently, he lost a unanimous decision to Forrest Griffin, an above average fighter who enjoyed an enormous size advantage in that fight.  These last five fights don’t jump off the page at you as those of a shot fighter.

What it comes down to is this.  Rich Franklin is a much more technical, more well-rounded fighter with more left in the tank than Wanderlei.  He should be able to pick him apart and win a pretty comfortable decision far more than the abovementioned odds would indicate.

SPECIALTY FLIER PICK:

Mike Russow (+350) over Fabricio Werdum (-500)

Thoughts: The truth is, there isn’t a second fight this weekend that I want to advise you to stay away from.  With this in mind, I figured I’d give you another bet that’s worth a look if you’re feeling adventurous.  Fabricio Werdum is a big favorite, as he has showed improved standup in his last fight against Roy Nelson to compliment his world class ground game.  However, his takedown defense has never been spectacular, and there is a good possibility that he could end up on his back against Russow.  Russow is primarily a wrestler who has shown a penchant for not being afraid to take the fight to the ground with world class grapplers.  He was able to maintain top control against another top level jiu jitsu practioner in Jon Olav Einemo.  Fabricio should win this fight, but Russow is more than capable of keeping top position and winning a three round decision here.  As I previously mentioned, if you are feeling like taking a chance, there are worse places to take one that on Russow at +350.

Fenichel’s Four Fight Parlay:

Gray Maynard + Dan Miller + Nick Catone + Cezar Ferreira

Gray Maynard over Clay Guida: This fight has been covered in detail already above.

Dan Miller over Ricardo Funch – While Miller is not a world beater by any stretch he is a solid and gritty fighter.  Funch on the other hand, has shown absolutely nothing in his UFC career, and should be on the way out the door after dominating decision loss here.

Nick Catone over Chris Camozzi: Catone is a very solid prospect that holds a victory over rising contender Constantinos Philippou, and gave title contender Mark Munoz everything he can handle in a split decision loss.  Camozzi has beaten several fighters no longer employed with the UFC, and has lost handily every time he’s taken a step up in competition. I fully expect Catone to steamroll him here.

Cezar Ferreira over Sergio Moraes: Moraes is only here because the man he lost to in the semifinals, Daniel Sarafan, was injured in training and unable to fight.  The contender should prevail over the pretender here without much trouble.

That’s it for the second installment of Fenichel’s Fantasy Freak Out.  Enjoy the fights guys.

(David Fenichel is the CEO of Fenichel’s Fantasy Fight League.  The new season starts July 1st, with the winner getting two tickets to the UFC, including hotel and airfare.  You can sign up for the new season at FantasyMMAworld.com)