NFL Football: Live Betting on the Conference Championships
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Jan. 16, 2012
We’re down to the final four in the NFL Playoffs and if last weekend was any indication, defense is no longer a premium in the postseason.
Of the four divisional matchups last week only the Seattle Seahawks were held to under 30 points – they still scored 28 – and all games went over the total. We expect the same in the Conference Championships, meaning “3 and out” and “turnover” wagers won’t be much of a premium in Bovada Live betting. It’s all offense; whether it’s “run” or “pass” is where the money lies.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-9.5) Sunday, 6:30 PM ET
The most familiar of the two matchups is the Baltimore Ravens at the New England Patriots in the AFC Championships. The two met in Week 3 of the regular season, and Baltimore got the upper hand 31-30. New England couldn’t stop Baltimore’s young trio in the contest: quarterback Joe Flacco finished with 382 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Wide receiver Torrey Smith had 127 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Running back Ray Rice finished with 101 yards off 20 carries and one touchdown. With the Ravens offense hitting 100 degrees, we don’t expect the Patriots to slow them down Sunday.
The question is can the Ravens stop the Patriots? Probably not. The Pats average 34.8 points on offense and are led by QB Tom Brady, who is always on fire in the playoffs. Last week versus the Houston Texans, Brady completed 25-of-40 passes for 344 yards and three touchdowns. Expect more of the same with runs mixed in versus the Ravens.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) Sunday, 3 PM ET
The bigger enigma in the Conference Championships is the San Francisco 49ers at the Atlanta Falcons. We know the 49ers want to run in this game. It won’t only be up to RB Frank Gore to move the chains on the ground either. It’s going to fall on second-year QB Colin Kaepernick as well. Colin K ripped the Green Bay defense for 181 rushing yards off 16 scrambles last weekend, cementing his status as a dangerous dual threat. If you don’t see the Falcons contain the run game early, don’t expect 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh to stop pounding it regardless of how successful Kaepernick can be by airing it out.
Atlanta will be a little more one-dimensional. Atlanta’s run D ranks just 29th in the running game, as RB Michael Turner appears to be on a steep decline. The entire offense will be on the shoulders of QB Matt Ryan, WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez. If you’re betting for a successful Atlanta offense, expect it to be through the air. However, keep in mind oddsmakers have made the Falcons 3.5-point home underdogs; it appears they don’t have much confidence in the No. 1 seeded Falcons.
