NBA Betting: Despite Two Superstars, Blazers Not Given Much Chance Against Spurs
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | May 5, 2014
There’s little dispute that the San Antonio Spurs have three future Hall of Famers in Tim Duncan, perhaps the greatest power forward in NBA history, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, two of the greatest players ever born outside the United States.
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Yet with all due respect to that veteran trio, the Portland Trail Blazers have the two best players in their Western Conference semifinal series against San Antonio that begins Tuesday: point guard Damian Lillard and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. Those two are in their primes, something that can’t be said about those Spurs. Yet the Blazers are still big +285 series underdogs against San Antonio (-370) at Bovada. The total numbers of games in the series is listed at 5.5, with the over a -320 betting favorite. That it ends in five or seven games is the +210 favorite. A sweep for either club is the +400 long shot.
Fifth-seeded Portland wasn’t a favorite in its opening round series against Houston, either, opening at +180. The Blazers eliminated the No. 4 Rockets in one of the great first-round series ever played. Lillard finished it off in the sixth game by hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer Friday night, likely the biggest shot in franchise history. Portland, which advanced to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2000, paid off at
6/1 on the exact series result. No team in the league had a longer playoff drought of not advancing. Teams that lead an NBA playoff series 3-2 win the series nearly 86 percent of the time. The Blazers do it 100 percent of the time, improving to 7-0 in those situations.
Lillard was brilliant overall against Houston, averaging 25.5 points, 6.7 assists and 6.3 rebounds in 44.7 minutes per game. All his numbers were significantly better from the regular season, especially 3-point shooting (39.4 percent during year, 48.9 percent against Houston). Teams like the Bobcats (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) and Kings (Thomas Robinson) are still kicking themselves for passing on Lillard in the 2012 draft; he slipped to No. 6. Aldridge was equally great against Houston, opening the series with back-to-back 40-point games and averaging 29.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.
Top-seeded San Antonio struggled in its series against No. 8 Dallas in getting stretched to seven games despite going off as huge -900 series favorites. That was surprising because the Spurs entered the series having won 10 straight games against Dallas. The Mavs aren’t a great defensive team yet held the Spurs to 93 points or less in three of the games. Parker led the Spurs in scoring at 19.9 per game. He did suffer an ankle injury in Game 4 so that’s something worth monitoring going forward. It took until Sunday for the Spurs to finish off Dallas so they didn’t get much rest.
Portland and San Antonio split the season regular-season series 2-2, with the Blazers winning the first two meetings and San Antonio the last two. Both teams were 1-1 at home. Lillard averaged 25.0 points and 6.3 assists in the four games; Aldridge averaged 21.3 points and 8.0 rebounds but missed one game, which Portland lost.
Ginobili led San Antonio in averaging 17.3 points against Portland. Duncan averaged 15.7 in three games and Parker just 12.7 in three. San Antonio remains the 11/10 Western Conference favorite with the Blazers as 9/1 long shots. The Spurs 6.5-point home favorites for Game 1, which will have live betting at the book. The underdog has covered five of the past six meetings.
