NBA Betting: Thunder Look Overmatched Against Spurs In West Finals
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | May 23, 2014
The old adage in the NBA is that a playoff series hasn’t truly started until a road team wins a game. So in that respect the 2014 Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder hasn’t begun yet even though San Antonio is up 2-0.
So, why then, does it already feel over? Here’s why: The Spurs have outscored the Thunder by 52 points through two games, the most ever by one team over another in a conference finals series. San Antonio is now the even-money NBA title favorite on Bovada’s NBA betting odds.
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Thunder backers will argue this point: In the 2012 West Finals, the Thunder were beaten soundly in the first two games in San Antonio, the Spurs’ 19th and 20th straight wins dating back to that regular season. Oklahoma City then won the next four games, all by at least five points, to reach the NBA Finals. So it can be done. However, the Spurs are 18-2 all-time under Coach Gregg Popovich in a series taking a 2-0 lead. Also, this San Antonio team is clearly better and deeper than that one.
Meanwhile, that Thunder team had two very good players in James Harden and Serge Ibaka that this current one doesn’t. Harden, of course traded to Houston before last season, averaged 18.5 points
and 5.5 rebounds in the ’12 series. Ibaka is out for these West Finals because of a calf injury that also leaves him unlikely for the NBA Finals should the Thunder rally. He averaged 12.0 points and 5.7 rebounds in that series two years ago. That included a memorable 26-point night in Game 4 when Ibaka was 11-for-11 from the field and 4-for-4 from the free-throw line. In that series, the Thunder outscored the Spurs by 8.3 points per 100 possessions with Ibaka on the court.
It has been Ibaka’s absence that has been the difference in San Antonio’s first two wins this series. He was by far Oklahoma City’s top rim protector, forcing Spurs like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to think twice about driving into the lane. Ibaka also had developed a nice mid-range jumper that forced Tim Duncan out of the paint to guard him.
In the Thunder’s four-game regular season sweep of the Spurs, Ibaka averaged 14.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game. That’s simply not replaceable. The guy who has replaced Ibaka in the starting lineup is Nick Collison. He has more fouls (three) than points (two) in the first two games.
Actually, every Thunder starter other than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook has been invisible. Center Kendrick Perkins is averaging 3.5 points. Guard Thabo Sefolosha somehow has gone scoreless and assist-less in both games. So to win it looks as if Durant and Westbrook might have to combine for 70 points. The Spurs know that and right now the duo is averaging 41.5 points per game.
Minus Ibaka, Parker is having an open road to the basket and the Spurs are crushing the Thunder in points in the paint. Parker is averaging 18.0 points on 16-for-29 from the field (9-for-11 on drives to the basket) and handing out 8.5 assists per game when the Thunder tries to collapse on him. San Antonio scored a whopping 66 points in the paint in Game 1 followed by 54 in Game 2. It’s the first time in Spurs history they have scored at least 50 paint points in back-to-back playoff games.
While more than a handful of teams have rallied from 2-0 holes to win a series, only four in NBA history have ever come back to win a best-of-7 series after losing the first two games by double-digits as the Thunder have. The last team to do it was San Antonio in 2008 against New Orleans.
The Thunder have opened as 2-point home favorites for Sunday’s Game 3, which will have live betting at Bovada, but they are now +1400 title long shots.
