NBA Futures Betting: Playoff Odds for Fringe Teams
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | March 7, 2014
The NBA’s regular season ends Wednesday, April 16, meaning there are less than six weeks of basketball remaining. Of course 16 of the league’s teams will reach the postseason while 14 will start looking forward to May’s NBA Draft lottery.
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Teams have on average around 20 games left. In the Eastern Conference, you can mark down six clubs that will advance to the postseason: Indiana, Miami, Toronto, Chicago, Washington and Brooklyn. The Pacers and Heat will be the top two seeds, with the order TBD.
At the bottom of the East, you have Charlotte and Atlanta in the final two spots entering Wednesday’s action. They are each three games ahead of No. 9 Detroit and four ahead of No. 10 Cleveland. Realistically those are the only two clubs with a chance to sneak into the top eight because the Knicks are playing so terribly.
Bovada released yes/no playoff futures for a few teams this week. The Bobcats are looking for their first postseason trip since 2009-10, which is the last time the team finished with a winning record. Because the East is so weak at the bottom this season, having a winning record won’t be necessary to play postseason basketball. Oddsmakers are so confident in Charlotte that they don’t have them listed for yes/no playoff futures.
The Hawks are 1/6 to make it and 4/1 to miss out. Atlanta has been a playoff team each of the past six seasons but this club lost one of its best players this offseason to free agency in Josh Smith. In December, the Hawks’ other top player, center Al Horford, was lost to a season-ending injury.
The Hawks are in a free-fall, entering Wednesday’s loss in Portland having dropped 11 of 12. They won’t be favored in their next three games, either: at Golden State, at the Clippers and at Utah. The good news is after this road trip, Atlanta doesn’t play back-to-back road games the rest of the season. Only seven of Atlanta’s final 20 games are on the road. Atlanta is a solid 17-11 at home.
The Pistons haven’t made the playoffs since 2008-09 and GM Joe Dumars will be fired if they don’t this season. Detroit doesn’t have a good home/road split the rest of the way. Starting Friday in Minnesota, 14 of the Pistons final 21 games are on the road. Detroit is 4/1 to make the playoffs and 1/6 to miss out.
It’s going to take a record likely at least 10 games over .500 to reach the playoffs in the much deeper Western Conference. The top five teams are set out West, order TBD: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Houston, LA Clippers and Portland. Golden State is in good shape at No. 6 and would be third in the East. That leaves four teams fighting for the final two spots: Dallas, Phoenix, Memphis and Minnesota.
The Mavericks are 1/4 to make the postseason and 5/2 to miss out. They did miss last year for the first time since 1999-2000 but haven’t finished with a losing record since then. The key stretch for Dallas likely will begin March 17 against Boston as that begins an eight-game homestand. Dallas is 19-10 at home and will need a winning record in those eight because five of their final seven are on the road.
The Grizzlies are even money to reach the playoffs and 5/7 to miss out. Starting Friday, 13 of Memphis’ final 22 games are on the road, including trips to San Antonio and Miami. The Grizzlies also must play Miami and Indiana in Memphis.
Phoenix is one of the NBA’s surprise teams and is 5/7 to make the postseason and even money to miss out. The Suns are just 6-7 since February 1. Starting Sunday at Golden State, Phoenix plays eight of their next 11 on the road, where the Suns are only 14-13.
Minnesota is the longest shot among the West teams at 2/1 to make the playoffs and 1/3 to miss out. The Wolves are playing better of late but haven’t been more than four games above .500 all season and that won’t cut it in the West. Minnesota is the only West top-10 team with a losing road record.
