Neymar Injury Drops Brazil from Favored World Cup Role
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | July 7, 2014
You really can’t argue with the World Cup’s final four. Brazil, Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands all have the talent and skill required to advance to the semifinals.
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Brazil leads the bunch with five World Cup titles. Germany has three and is in the semifinals for the fourth straight World Cup. Argentina is a two-time World Cup champion. Pretty much everyone would agree that the Netherlands is the best soccer country yet to win the World Cup. The Dutch have been runner-ups three times, including the 2010 competition.
Injuries will affect these semifinals perhaps more than any other World Cup. Host Brazil has been the World Cup favorite since this tournament began but has dropped to +250, placing them behind
Argentina (+240). That’s because the Brazilians lost their best player, Neymar. He suffered a fractured vertebra in Brazil’s quarterfinal win against Colombia.
How important is Neymar? He had four goals in this tournament and was one of the Bovada favorites to lead the World Cup in goalscoring. ESPN’s statistically brilliant fivethirtyeight.com estimates his impact at about 0.4 goals per 90 minutes. It calculates that 0.37 goals come from increasing his team’s scoring, while only a small fraction (0.03 goals) comes from improving Brazil’s goal prevention. So the site says that if you removed Neymar from the pitch and replaced him with an average international soccer player, Brazil’s scoring would drop by 0.37 goals per 90 minutes, and it would allow an additional 0.03 goals per 90 minutes of play.
More bad news for Brazil: Center back and captain Thiago Silva is suspended for the Germany match because he collected a second yellow card in the win over Colombia. He scored the first goal of that match but was later given a card for interfering with Colombian goalkeeper David Ospina. At least Silva can return should Brazil win.
Germany is the favorite at +160 against Brazil (+175) to win the Tuesday match, and a regulation draw is set at +230. This might be the first time Brazilians find themselves as underdogs in an international match on their home soil. The national team hasn’t lost a competitive match on home soil since 1975.
Argentina will be the favorite (+135) against the Dutch (+210) on Wednesday, and a regulation draw is set at +230. The Argentines are dealing with a significant injury of their own, but at least it’s not with Lionel Messi. Midfielder Angel Di Maria suffered a thigh injury midway through his country’s quarterfinal win over Belgium. He’s out for the remainder of the tournament. Di Maria might be Argentina’s second-most important player. He netted the extra-time winner against Switzerland in the second round and assisted Gonzalo Higuain’s winning goal in the first half against Belgium. Argentina could see the return of forward Sergio Aguero, who has missed the past two matches with a muscle strain. The Argentines are in their first World Cup semifinals since 1990.
As for the Dutch and Costa Rica match, the Netherlands’ coach Louis van Gaal stunningly pulled starting keeper Jasper Cillessen during the penalty phase for backup Tim Krul. He saved two of the five penalty kicks, giving the Dutch a 4-3 shootout-out win. The Argentines beat the Dutch in the 1978 World Cup final.
