NFL Betting: Backing Favorites Largely Paid Off in Week 7
Bovada Staff : October 22, 2014
There were definitely some surprising results in Week 7. St. Louis beat Seattle 28-26. Jacksonville routed Cleveland for its first win of the season, and Miami pulled an upset in Chicago. That being said, the three-most wagered games on Sunday were winners for bettors who backed the favorites.
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The top win for bettors at Bovada came from Indianapolis crushing visiting Cincinnati 27-0. Not too long ago some were projecting Cincinnati as perhaps the AFC’s most complete team, but the Bengals have been winless since coming out of their bye week three games ago. They played the last two without star receiver AJ Green.
The Colts were 3-point favorites and took nearly 80% of the spread action. Indianapolis was a -175 moneyline favorite, taking nearly 69%. The book came out ahead on the total with more than 75% leaning over 51 points. One of the book’s top player prop wins also came from that game with Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton staying under 1.5 touchdown passes. He didn’t have any; he must be missing Green.
The biggest game of Week 7 was the Sunday night matchup between the 49ers and Broncos in Denver, and that game took the most action of any Sunday night game thus far. Maybe those two will meet again in Super Bowl XLIX this February, but Denver was the superior team this time around. The Broncos won 42-17, and Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s NFL record for career touchdown passes. Demyarius Thomas caught the historic No. 509. The ball is now off to the Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. Manning threw for 318 yards and four scores overall. He didn’t even play in the fourth quarter.
Denver closed as a 7-point favorite, and the Broncos took more than 54% of the action. Denver was -275 on the moneyline and garnered nearly 64%. The over 49 points took almost 80%. The other big win for bettors was the Cowboys (-6) beating the New York Giants 31-21.
The top player
prop wins for bettors in Week 7 came from Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray going over 110.5 rushing yards against the Giants, and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson going over 205.5 passing yards in the loss to the Rams. Murray rushed 28 times for 128 yards and a touchdown against New York. He is the first player in NFL history to reach the century mark in his team’s first seven games of the season. Bovada listed him with an over/under of 11.5 100-yard games this season entering Week 7.
THURSDAY NIGHT: It’s a great Thursday night matchup this week with the Chargers visiting Denver. The Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites, and there will be live betting at the book. Denver’s win over San Francisco has now established the Broncos as clear 3/1 Super Bowl favorites. Green Bay has replaced Seattle as the second favorite with the Packers at 8/1. The Seahawks dropped to 9/1 where they’re currently tied with Dallas.
San Diego was upset at home by Kansas City on Sunday, 23-20. That loss ended the Bolts’ five-game winning streak. Cairo Santos took the victory with a 48-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining. Bovada offered an over/under on Philip Rivers’ quarterback rating for that game (110.5). He had a rating of at least 120 in the previous five games, which was an NFL first. Rivers was 17 of 31 for 205 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Chiefs, which translated into a rating of 83.4. Most bettors fared well with the prop as they leaned under. The defeat dropped the Chargers to 12/1 to win the Super Bowl and 6/1 to win the AFC.
Denver struggled to win two of three matchups against San Diego last season. The Bolts handed Denver its only home loss, 27-20 in Week 15. The Broncos won 28-20 in San Diego in Week 10 and then beat the Chargers 24-17 in Denver in a divisional playoff game.
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