NFL Inception: Player Prop Trends
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | September 7, 2012
Bettors set the trends on which NFL stars will over or underproduce in 2012.
With the season about to officially (Wednesday doesn’t count with us) kick off we have a feeling you’re about done staring at the Bovada Sportsbook’s regular season totals and NFL Futures. That leaves the fantasy side of things, the NFL players props.
Fantasy football is about taking risks, just like everything that makes the NFL interesting, as you’re using your armchair GM brain to draft players you believe hold the greatest value. And bettors have been looking at our sportsbook and painting a picture on how they feel the league’s old and new marquee players will perform in 2012.
We take a look at where most bettors are leaning thus far.
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Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos) – Total Passing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
TREND: Leaning UNDER 4,250 -130
Outside of he economy, Manning has been the biggest story in America this year.
He went from invincible, to hurt, to almost retired, to free agent, to Denver Bronco. And it appears bettors don’t think the future hall-of-famer will dissect opponents like he did before his neck injury.
They’re leaning UNDER 4,250, but a numbers check says it’s not just because of his neck but also, we believe, because he’s only gone for 4,250-plus six times in his 13-year career.
We also expect the Broncos to lean a bit on the run game early on as Manning eases back into things. That said, we are in a new pass-happy NFL, where 4,000-plus has become the benchmark and Manning does have the weapons in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas to make it happen.
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) – Total Rushing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
TREND: Leaning UNDER 950.5 -115
At age 29, Frank Gore was a senior running back last year. Now he enters 2012 with defenses geared to stop a San Francisco 49ers offense that leans on the running game; bettors are leaning toward Gore frequently getting stuffed in the backfield.
Source: sportsbook-ratings.net via Potsie on Pinterest
It not hard betting on Gore’s demise, he ran for just 853 yards a year before his 2011 season and hasn’t been productive this preseason. However everyone, perhaps even Gore’s own team, expected him to slump last year, and instead he rumbled 1,211 yards.
If Gore can last 16 games again in 2012, he could definitely see over 250 carries, with less carries he’s still hit 1,000 yards twice in his career.
Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccanneers) – Total Rushing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
TREND: Leaning OVER 875.5 -130
Three things point sharply in bettors’ favor when it comes to Buccaneers rookie Doug Martin topping 875.5 yards in 2012. First, it’s become obvious Lagarrette Blount isn’t in the Bucs’ plans this season, as rumors persist he was and perhaps still is on the trade block. Second, new head coach Greg Schiano is planning a more conservative gameplan to Tampa, preaching ground-and-pound instead of the trendier “throw it deep.” Third, Martin has been compared to Ray Rice by every talking head, and if he’s anything close to that over 875.5 yards could come easy.
The questions come from being a rookie. We’ve heard numerous times how San Diego first rounder Ryan Matthews was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson, only to see him go down with another injury. And if the recent debut New York Giants’ first-round RB David Wilson is any indication, all it takes is one rookie turnover to get into a coach’s dog house.
Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
TREND: Leaning OVER 8.5 -130
This is a perfect example of a fantasy football trend matching a betting trend. Check any fantasy football breakdown and the consensus is that Julio Jones will breakout as the greatest thing since Calvin Johnson. And we do believe he has the size, speed and hands to do it.
However, two players could hold him back. The Falcons expected quarterback Matt Ryan to break out last year when they brought in Jones along with wideout Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez, but it didn’t happen.
Also, this isn’t a situation like in Detroit, where Johnson is the only star target, White needs his touches too. While it’s very possible Jones will become the team’s leading receiver, touchdowns are never guaranteed; both are capable of making plays in the redzone
NFL player props are up right now in the Bovada Sportsbook.
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