NFL Prop Shop: Betting on the 49ers at the Super Bowl
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Jan. 30, 2013
What makes the San Francisco 49ers such an interesting team to wager on is the variety of ways they can dominate a game. The 49ers have balance; they have a dual-threat quarterback and deep threats (tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Randy Moss) that mesh with its chain movers (running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Michael Crabtree).
San Francisco has the talent to go in any direction the game takes them. When digging deep into their Super Bowl Props, there were definitely a few that caught our eye.
Total TD Passes in the 4th Quarter – Colin Kaepernick
Over 1/2 (+180)
Under 1/2 (-165)
At first this wager seems like a simple choice for good money. With a -4 spread it appears oddsmakers expect a bit of a nail biter, creating plenty of opportunities for Kaepernick to create at least one fourth-quarter touchdown drive.
However when you include his ability to run for TDs, the reason for the odds as such becomes clear. Kaepernick has five rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season, only two through the air. With 209 of his 415 rushing yards coming in the fourth this year, it appears San Fran likes to wear opponents down before unleashing the second-year QB’s running ability.
Will Frank Gore (SF) score a TD in the game?
Yes -145
No +115
This is a simple bet that rests on whether you believe the 49ers will win this game. Gore has eight TDs on the season, seven of those have come in a victory. Yes is also favored because Gore has gone three-straight games with a TD, including three in the playoffs. San Francisco is a run-first team with a second-year QB. In the red zone, Gore will get his touches.
CROSS SPORT MATCHUPS – What will be higher?
LeBron James Points Feb 3rd vs Toronto
Pick (-115)
San Francisco 49ers Total Points Scored Super Bowl XLVII
Pick (-115)
We don’t care how serious a better you are, you have to squeeze in a couple of oddball bets on Super Bowl Sunday. This cross sport wager caught our eye because of its fairly balanced price point. However, the numbers favor King James.
The Miami Heat are at the Toronto Raptors during the Super Bowl – hardly a Finals matchup for them – and LeBron posted 31 points against their 23rd ranked defense. While San Francisco averages enough (24.8 points per game) to envision them cracking 30, Baltimore has a defense fresh off of holding the league-leading New England offense to 13 points.
Player to score the first San Francisco TD in the game
Michael Crabtree 4/1
Anything can happen with this 49ers offense as it seems everyone, including backup TE Delanie Walker, has had their time to shine in the end zone throughout the season. However, we’re going with Crabtree after weighing the 4/1 price with statistical probability.
Gore is the favored choice for a reason; he’s a running back who gets plenty of red zone touches. Also, he has two TDs in the first and two in the second this year. Crabtree peaked our interest because while he may have just one receiving TD in the first, he has four in the second this year. If the 49ers go TD-less after 15 minutes, there’s a good chance he’ll be the one to break the ice.
HISTORICAL MATCHUPS – Who will have more Passing Yards in the game?
Steve Young Super Bowl XXIX (325 Yards)
-89½ (-115)
Colin Kaepernick Super Bowl XLVII
+89½ (-115)
At first glance, it seems like Young takes this one, as Kaepernick hasn’t cracked 300 yards this season. However that 89.5-point spread leans in the favor of the present 49ers QB. Kaepernick has averaged 254 passing yards over his last four games, and 248 in the playoffs. That beats the spread every time.
Just as an extra, here’s a popular Super Bowl Entertainment Prop.
Will Alicia Keys forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?
Yes +200
No -300
We have absolutely no stats on this one, but we’ve never seen Alicia Keys screw up anything much less the national anthem. We’d be shocked if Keys pulled an “Aguilera” Sunday.
Coming up Thursday, we check the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl props. No, unfortunately we’ve seen no wagers involving Ray Lewis and deer antler spray.
Super Bowl NFL player Props are available at the Bovada Sportsbook right now.
