NFL Prop Shop: Peterson Races Against the Odds
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Dec. 20, 2012
An amazing record-breaking season makes for interesting player props at Bovada.
The NFL always manages to get itself in the headlines, but this season it actually deserves its front-page status on ESPN.
Despite being force-fed an annoying Tim Tebow story once every two weeks, there have been great stories in the NFL this year: Quarterback Peyton Manning’s comeback, the emergence of star rookie QBs and running back Adrian Peterson going Jim Brown on the competition one year removed from knee surgery.
Best part is, like a good headline, NFL drama makes for good props. The Bovada Sportsbook’s NFL player props and team props have as much intrigue as a poll question from your favorite sports radio show. We cherry picked three that caught our eye this week.
Who will win regular season MVP?
Peyton Manning (DEN) QB – 5/7
Adrian Peterson (MIN) RB – 1/1
Tom Brady (NE) QB – 10/1
With Brady given long 10-1 NFL odds, this appears to be a two-horse race. Going by shock and awe, Peterson gets the edge. Though Manning’s year out of the NFL was a great story, having your knee rebuilt only to return and make a run for the 2,000-yard club is legendary.
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Will Adrian Peterson break the single season rushing record of 2,105 Yards?
Yes – +200
No – -300
With Dickerson’s rushing record in striking distance for the first time ever, Bovada oddsmakers ask the ultimate pub question.
What makes the “Yes” wager a solid buy is that Peterson has more yards with two games remaining than Johnson had with Tennessee three seasons ago. Plus, if not for a bad holding call in Seattle, Johnson could have taken the record.
What makes it tough is Peterson’s remaining opponents: he’s at the Houston Texans this weekend, the number five rushing defense in the league. Then he’s at home versus division rival Green Bay. If Green Bay jumps ahead 14 or 21 early in this contest Minnesota could abandon the run.
Who will break Michael Strahan’s single season record of 22.5 sacks?
Aldon Smith Only – +275
J.J. Watt Only – +400
Both Smith and Watt – +700
Neither – -175
There’s a lot of interesting offense-focused props available at Bovada (wagers on Detroit Lions’ wide receiver Calvin Johnson breaking Jerry Rice’s receiving yards record is one popular item), but we want to focus on a defensive prop that hasn’t been talked about as much this year.
With two games remaining, Houston Texans’ end J.J. Watt is sitting on 20.5 sacks while 49ers’ end Aldon Smith has 19.5. The “Both” wager at +700 isn’t out of the question.
Although “Neither” is the favorite, we believe it’s more than possible this record is shattered. QBs drop back more than ever in today’s passing league, giving both plenty of opportunities to attack the QB.
Smith gets the slight edge because he plays Seattle this weekend and the woeful offensive line of Arizona in Week 17. Watt will be focused on the run this weekend with Peterson coming to Houston. However, he has a definite shot versus QB-focused Indianapolis in Week 17.
NFL odds and player props are up right now in the Bovada Sportsbook.
