NFL Props Betting: Examining Bovada’s Quarterback Exotic Props for 2014
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | September 1, 2014
Bovada has unveiled hundreds of individual player props for the 2014 NFL season. We all know that the NFL is a quarterback league, so here’s a closer look at a few of the more interesting exotics for quarterbacks.
When will Peyton Manning break Brett Favre’s career touchdown passing record?
Manning will likely own every major NFL record if he plays a few more seasons, but Favre’s record of 508 touchdown passes is going to fall fairly early this season, unless Manning suffers a major injury. Currently Manning has 491 touchdown passes in 240 regular-season games. Favre finished his career in 2010 with 508 touchdown throws in 302 games. The closest active quarterback to Manning is the Saints’ Drew Brees with 363, and he’s three years younger than Manning.
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Bovada lists Manning breaking the mark in Week 7 or before at -130 and in Week 8 or after at even money. The Broncos have a Week 4 bye. Last season on the way to his record 55 touchdown passes, Manning was at 18 in Week 5 at Dallas. It helped that he had a record-tying seven-touchdown game in the opener against Baltimore (and no early bye week). Denver’s first seven weeks this year are vs. Indianapolis, vs. Kansas City, at Seattle, bye week, vs. Arizona, at NY Jets, vs. San Francisco.
Over/under 9.5 games started this season by Browns rookie Johnny Manziel.
Both options are -115.It has already been decided that Manziel will not start Week 1 as veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer was given the nod. However, the Browns will likely be terrible
offensively if the preseason is any indication. In addition, the season-long suspension of star receiver Josh Gordon was upheld. That takes away Cleveland’s best offensive player. Manziel, interestingly, has already been fined by the NFL for flipping off the Redskins’ bench in a preseason game. There’s a prop that Johnny Football will get a fine by the league during the season at +200, and no is at-300.
Over/under 3.5 games started this season by Jaguars rookie Blake Bortles.
Both options are -115.While Manziel, the No. 22 overall pick, hasn’t looked great this preseason, Bortles, the No. 3 overall pick, largely has looked NFL-ready. Bortles certainly has the size and arm strength. One problem is the Jaguars seem steadfast on Bortles sitting all season, learning from veteran Chad Henne. The team will be turned over to Bortles in 2015. Can Henne stay healthy and productive for over 12 games?
Over/under 2.5 quarterbacks who start for the Rams this season.
Under is a -200 favorite and over is at +150. This prop is in light of the season-ending injury suffered by former Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford in the Rams’ third preseason game. Veteran Shaun Hill, who hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass since 2010, is starting. The Rams could pick someone up via trade or when teams trim their rosters. The most games Hill has ever played in a season is 11, but he has always been a backup.
Over/under 17.5 quarterbacks playing all 16 regular season games.
Under is the -130 favorite with over at even money. Why 17.5? A total of 17 quarterbacks started all 16 games in 2013. It would have been 18, but Kansas City benched Alex Smith for Week 17 against the Chargers because the Chiefs were already locked into their playoff position. Bettors must take into account injury, poor performance or that Chiefs-type scenario on this prop. The Eagles’ Nick Foles, for example, had a stellar 2013 season but only started 10 games because he took over when Michael Vick was injured. Big names like Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers missed half the season due to injury.
