Super Bowl Odds: Live Betting on San Francisco Offense
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Jan. 23, 2012
Super Bowl XLVII will be available for Bovada Live Betting. We analyze the 49ers’ possible game plan.
Take an old-school approach, mix in some new-school innovation and you have the 2012 San Francisco 49ers.
While other teams tried to live up to the media slogan “pass first league”, head coach Jim Harbaugh looked at his talent and leaned on throwback, ground-and-pound football. While everyone tried to mold their quarterback into old drop-back-dimple-chin Tom Brady, Harbaugh trotted out a second-year scrambler in pistol formations. The second-year coach has shifted conventional thinking with how modern football is supposed to be played, making his 49ers the most interesting Bovada Live wager in the Super Bowl to date.
Live Betting on the Offense
You’re going to hear enough about 49ers second-year QB Colin Kaepernick in the next two weeks to make you believe he’ll be throwing it 50 times versus the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII. However, looking past Kaepernick’s highlights, this is still a run-first team.
Kaepernick has thrown over 30 passes just three times in his 10 starts for San Francisco. Two of them ended in losses; the other, his miraculous Divisional Round performance versus Green Bay. The 49ers run it with the best of them, though they rank seventh in regular season attempts behind the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins in yards per carry. Only a 2,000-yard running back, Adrian Peterson, and arguably the league’s best running QB, Robert Griffin III, beat them in yardage. They pound you into submission and throw it when you adapt.
The Ravens are
The pistol offense is the buzz word you’ll hear when the 49ers offense is on the field. Though you won’t see the formation all the time, when you do, Rush should again be on your Live Betting menu. The pistol was created by former Nevada coach Chris Ault in 2004 to give a new running dimension to his passing game. In 2009 it spawned the first trio of 1,000-yard rushers in NCAA history. San Francisco has three first rounders on the offensive line, two above-average tight ends, a star running back and a star QB who was part of Nevada’s running revolution. Right now the 49ers are running it to perfection and we saw the damage it could do on the ground when San Francisco gashed Green Bay for 300-plus rushing yards including a record-breaking 181 rushing yards from Kaepernick.
An effective run game will make for an efficient 49ers passing game. As we alluded to above, Kaepernick is better the less he throws. His QB rating is 108.4 when his passes in the 20s; 82.3 in the 30s. San Francisco passing game is about feeding off the run to make big plays, and Kaepernick throws a beautiful, accurate ball (62.4 completion percentage). Pass Completion is a solid bet when you see a pass coming amidst an effective rushing attack.
If linebacker Ray Lewis can pray and yell his Baltimore Ravens into a competent run-stopping defense, Kaepernick will be in more third-and-long situations than he’d like. His completion percentage is 50% in that scenario and the team ranks 25th overall on third down. Live bets like Pass Incomplete or No Score look like winners here.
The most surprising stat that could earn you some solid Super Bowl odds is when San Fran reaches the red zone. The offense scores more since Kaepernick took over for QB Alex Smith in Week 10, however it ranks just 21st in red zone touchdown percentage (50.9%). Even if you opt to wager on Field Goal instead of Touchdown, kicker David Akers has missed 14 of his last 38 field goals. No Score could be the risky, yet profitable way to go at certain points in the game.
Check back Thursday for the Live Betting Super Bowl breakdown of Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens.
