Super Bowl XLIX-Groundhog Day Parlay

On February 1, the New England Patriots will play the Seattle Seahawks at Super Bowl XLIX. On February 2, an even greater spectacle will take place: Punxsutawney Phil will emerge from his ceremonial hole, and if he sees his shadow, we’re in for six more weeks of winter. People have been betting on the outcome of both these events for years. Now you can parlay them together in the mother of all Super Bowl entertainment props.

Here’s how the odds look on our Super Bowl XLIX props board as we go to press:

Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow and Patriots win the Super Bowl +220
Punxsutawney Phil does not see shadow and Patriots win the Super Bowl +275
Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow and Seahawks win the Super Bowl +225
Punxsutawney Phil does not see shadow and Seahawks win the Super Bowl +275

As you can see, the odds suggest it’s pretty much a toss-up. The Seahawks are +2 (–115) to win on Super Bowl Sunday (6:30 PM ET, NBC), in what looks like a very close contest on paper. And the odds are treating “no shadow” as a slight underdog. But do these odds accurately reflect the chances of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow?

Cold Case

Maybe not. According to Stormfax, of the 118 times this ceremony has taken place, dating all the way back to 1887, the groundhog on duty only failed to see his shadow 17 times (note: these figures are not corroborated). Even if you account for the fact that 10 of those 17 “no shadow” results have happened since 1983, the score is still heavily in favor of “shadow.”

To understand this better, we need to look at the ceremony itself and how things are run. Punxsutawney is in Pennsylvania, about a two-hour drive northeast of Pittsburgh. Based on a long-running Candlemas Day tradition, the first official Groundhog Day celebration took place in 1886, and one year later, the first ceremony at nearby Gobbler’s Knob was held.

Fear of a Black Hat

Here’s what happens: on February 2, Punxsutawney Phil, who is taken care of year-round by a group called the Inner Circle (these are the guys in the top hats and tuxedos), is placed in a burrow underneath a stage with a fake hollowed-out tree stump for his entrance. At roughly 7:25 AM local time, Phil is coaxed out of his burrow and held aloft for his thousands of adoring fans. Then he’s placed on top of the stump for a moment or two, and the result is determined.

Given these parameters, it makes sense that “shadow” would easily be the most likely result on any given February 2 in Gobbler’s Knob. Ah, but this year’s long-range Groundhog Day forecast at press time calls for a 50% chance of snow showers early in the morning. The region is still under an active winter weather advisory; there are some pockets of sunshine expected later on Groundhog Day, but for the most part, it’s clouds and snow for the next 10 days. Perhaps “no shadow” has enough betting value to belong in your Groundhog Day parlay after all.