Thunder Still Best Value on Championship Futures Market
The Golden State Warriors are probably going to win the Western Conference. They evened their best-of-seven series with the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday night, winning Game 2 in a cakewalk, 118-91 as 9-point home favorites. But if you’re looking for value on the NBA championship futures market, the Thunder are +700 at press time. That’s a bargain price for a team that beat the Warriors on their own court in Game 1.
It isn’t even a case of the defending champions getting too much love from the betting public. Golden State is a very reasonable –125 at press time to win back-to-back titles. The culprit appears to be the Cleveland Cavaliers. Heading into their Eastern Conference final with the Toronto Raptors, the Cavaliers were available at +230. That may have been a decent price at the time, but after crushing the short-handed Raptors in Game 1, Cleveland was priced at +160 heading into Game 2.
Middle Man
The logic behind betting on the Cavs is simple enough. They should have little trouble against Toronto; the Raps are without center Jonas Valanciunas (27.5 playoff PER), who sprained his right ankle in the previous round versus the Miami Heat. Valanciunas described himself as “50%” before getting ruled out for Game 2.
Without their starting center, the Raptors face a quick and nasty extinction. They were crushed 84-115 in Tuesday’s opener, dropping the cash as 11-point road dogs. On Thursday, Toronto (+11.5) stayed competitive deep into the first half before unraveling and losing 89-108. LeBron James (26.1 PER) had a triple-double in that game with 23 points, 11 assists and 11 rebounds. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that Cleveland will coast into the NBA Finals without having lost a game.
Frye Guys
The problem with that logic is simple: Cleveland might not measure up to either of the remaining Western teams. The Warriors are coming off a record-setting regular season, winning 73 games while still making a profit at 45-35-2 ATS. The Thunder (55-27 SU, 37-44-1 ATS) were almost forgotten in Golden State’s shadow, but despite winning two fewer games than the Cavs (57-25 SU, 37-42-3 ATS), Oklahoma City posted a better point differential at plus-7.3 to Cleveland’s plus-6.0.
That doesn’t mean the Cavaliers are doomed to failure. They’ve found a new gear during these playoffs, firing away from the perimeter and racking up 117.4 points per 100 possessions – more than anyone else in the league. Channing Frye (23.1 PER), who arrived at the trade deadline in a deal with the Orlando Magic, has drained 60.9% of his postseason 3-point attempts. That might not be sustainable in the long run, but there are only a handful of games left to go. If the Cavs can keep this up, they’ll be very hard to beat. That’s an expensive “if” at these prices.
