Analyze This: Dodgers Make MLB Magic
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | August 17, 2012
Last summer we were talking about the Los Angeles Dodgers (65-53) as the laughing stock of MLB betting. But as soon as Ervin “Magic” Johnson became majority owner the Dodgers started living up to his nickname, slipping into the top spot in the National League West and earning their place on bettors’ radar in a big way.
L.A. cemented its mantle as a popular wager on Aug. 7. The Dodgers were facing the Colorado Rockies (44-71) at home fresh off of sweeping the Chicago Cubs (46-70) and considering Colorado sits at the bottom of the NL West bettors pounced. Ninety-nine percent took L.A.’s +115 runline, and another 92 percent took the -179 moneyline. But something happened in that Tuesday matchup that has rarely happened in 2012: The Rockies’ pitching staff had the better day.
The no-name dominance started with Alex White (2-6, 5.82 ERA) for four shutout innings, moved to Josh Roenicke (4-0, 2.74 ERA) for another three, then a mishmash of relievers to hold the win. The staff only allowed one run, earning the Rockies a 3-1 victory and a big loss for the 99 percent (besides the “Occupy” movement).
That didn’t discourage bettors on Aug. 8. The Dodgers were back against the Rockies for Game 3 in the three-game set and they still confidently gave L.A. love. Eighty-nine percent took the Dodgers -110 runline; another 85 took the -220 moneyline. Why so pricey after a loss? Chad Billingsley was on the mound for L.A., and the kid has been on fire, coming into the start looking for his fourth-straight win. The result? Payback for bettors. Billingsley was solid, giving up four runs in 6.1 innings of work while L.A.’s bats racked up six runs on Jeff Francis (4-4, 5.99 ERA) and Carlos Torres (1-1, 4.66 ERA).
Surprisingly, bettors avoided the red hot Washington Nationals (winners of eight of their last 10) but did take a flyer on the second-best team in the majors, the Cincinnati Reds (71-46). Although we’re not sure if it’s because they are the Reds or because they were facing the pathetic Cubs in Chicago, who have had slightly more success than the Rockies. Eighty-three percent couldn’t resist the road-favorite runline at +115; another 85 percent took -138 moneyline.
To the Cubs’ credit they did give bettors a few headaches. Chicago matched Cincy’s offensive output until the ninth inning, when Aroldis Chapman came in shut the Cubs comeback down, leading to a 10-8 victory. Chapman has a 0.18 ERA against NL teams this year and hasn’t allowed a run to an NL Central rival since June 7 against Pittsburgh. Cincy bettors should be sure to thank him when they see him.
Are bettors betting the farm on some of baseball best or simply betting against baseball’s worst? Check back next week when we check the latest numbers.
Yep, we got Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees on Friday, Saturday and Sunday for MLB Live Betting this weekend, love ‘em or hate ‘em there is some drama that could make a statistically uneven matchup into pure entertainment.
First, there’s the behind-the-scenes drama for the Red Sox. Supposedly a team meeting ended with players asking for first-year manager Bobby Valentine’s job, which of course Red Sox owners have denied. That could give Boston an extra, we’re-not-falling-apart boost. Also, with CC Sabathia back on the disabled list, the Yankees are lacking its best arm to at least guarantee one game in the three-game set. New York’s best starter in this series is Hiroki Kuroda (11-6, 4.70) on Sunday. Kuroda has a 1-1 record and 1.66 ERA in his last three starts.
This could be an old school Yankees/Red Sox bout: A lot of hits, a lot of runs, a lot of fun.