Analyze This: Flawed Classic
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | October 19, 2012
Bettors learned a costly lesson this postseason, the Yankee Mystique is in St. Louis.
We admit, betting on the fall classic is tough. The underdog frequently makes noise in the MLB playoffs more than any other sport, and this year bettors are paying for it.
Last week bettors took a beating wagering on popular teams like the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves and we expected a shift in wagering. But things only got worse for bettors in the Bovada Sportsbook, much worse.
We begin with the third game between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. Back in the day the Yankees used to knock around the Orioles, therefore 62 percent of bettors had no problem taking the Yankees on the -1.5 runline or the -130 moneyline. Plus, the ageless arm of Andy Pettitte was on the mound versus rookie hurler Wie-Yin Chen, not a bad wager even though Baltimore was on the road.
However, this game quickly displayed the resiliency of the Orioles, and the magic lacking from the pinstripes. The rookie out-pitched the vet, and the Orioles withstood a late Yankee push to take the 3-2 win.
October 10, 71 percent of bettors bet the -1.5 (+175) runline on the Washington Nationals at home versus the St. Louis Cardinals, however moneyline bettors weren’t as confident, only 45 percent took the -108 moneyline. Two innings in, neither those who took the runline or moneyline were happy. Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig earned an RBI single in the first, and Pete Kozma homered to deep left to go score three. Unless you’re a Cardinals fan we doubt you’ve heard of Craig or Kozma, but that’s just how the Cardinals roll in the playoffs, never doubt them. 8-0 was the final, perhaps bettors will think long and hard before betting against the playoff-tested Cards again?
Perhaps not. The Cards were at the Nationals again in series deciding Game 5, and another 67 percent took the Nats on the -1.5 (+175) runline while it was 50/50 on the moneyline.
Things looked good for Washington bettors after three innings, RBIs by Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse put the Nats up 6-0. Washington had the 7-5 lead in the top of the 9th, until Nationals reliever Drew Storen came to the mound. It wasn’t long before the Cardinals were popping champagne like a P. Diddy party, 9-7 was the final. That extra run seemed necessary only to put a little extra salt into the runline bettor’s wounds.
The next day only one game was available to stop the bleeding, the Detroit Tigers at the New York Yankees. If you’ve been watching all the Yankee drama this past week you know how this went down, so we’ll just give you the tale of the tape.
The Yankees got a -1.5 (+155) runline and -137 moneyline. Seventy-three percent took the Yankee runline another 61 percent took the moneyline. The wager looked lost for 8.5 innings, the Yankees couldn’t buy a run. But in the bottom of the 9th the long lost Yankee magic returned, four runs in the inning forced extra innings. But that’s as long as the mystique lasted, in the 12th and Detroit earned the 6-4 victory.
With only the National League Championship Series left the World Series is upon us. And we think what bettors can take from the losses this postseason is the Yankee magic is a broken as Derek Jeter’s ankle, and it’s currently healing up in St. Louis.