Analyze This: Outside of Yankees, Bettors Struggling with MLB odds
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | July 20, 2012
Players in wait-and-see mode with only the Yankees playing consistent baseball
Baseball is finished its annual All-Star break and so far bettors seem a bit insecure in how to approach MLB betting in the Bovada Sportsbook. Generally action comes in like a four-seamer on the moneyline and runline in weekly marquee matchups, but only the league-leading New York Yankees (57-34) got that kind of commitment.
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So why the check swing on our MLB wagers? Though it could be the uncertainty of how squads start the second half, we believe it’s more a product of how the Yanks are playing in comparison to the rest of the league. New York came off the break having won four of its last five and with the best record in baseball, nobody has been as consistent or as hot in the summer heat. So when the struggling Toronto Blue Jays (last in the American League East with 45-47 record) were up on July 16, bettors swung away at the matchup. Phil Hughes (9-7, 4.22 ERA) was on the mound, and with six solid outings in his last seven players has no problem going 95 percent on the runline at +105 and 86 percent on the moneyline at -175. That’s a lot of trust for a kid who showed nothing but minor-league control last year. Hughes followed through with seven innings, four strikeouts, just two runs allowed and a W on both bets. Where Bovada made back cash was on the total, players went 79 percent on OVER 11 and the final was 6-3. Quick tip to bettors, the Yankees may have one of the top offenses in baseball but they also have the fourth-most UNDERs.
After the Yankees the top teams going in and out of the break just haven’t been as trustworthy, therefore we got knuckleball action on teams. Bettors finally caught on to the solid Cincinnati Reds (52-40), coming into the July 16 matchup versus the Arizona Diamondbacks riding a six-game winning streak. Eighty percent bet the Reds runline at +170, another 60 went on the moneyline at -121. But the Reds are a good example of what happens when you hop on the bandwagon a tad late. Not long before the game’s first pitch Joey Votto, the Reds first baseman and 2010 National League MVP, officially went on the disabled list for four weeks with torn cartilage in his left knee. Without Votto, 5-3 for the D-Backs was the final. Votto batted .342 with 14 home runs and 49 RBI on a squad ranked 20th in runs scored and batting average, without him the offense will likely get worse. The Reds are third-best versus the UNDER; it could get even better over the next month.
Shockingly it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers (49-44) and Philadelphia Phillies (41-52) matchup on July 16 that garnered the third-most interest. The Dodgers were just 1-5 in their last six and 5-15 in their last 20 leading into the game, but got 60 percent action at +195 on the runline. Philadelphia came in 6-14 in its last 20 and had most of the roster still working out post-DL kinks, they still garnered 59 percent on their side for the moneyline at -112. Finding reason for definitive action on either wager is a bit of a mystery, we gather that +195 runline was too fat to pass up and Philadelphia actually had some of its injury-riddled talent back to get some love on the moneyline. First baseman Ryan Howard was back for Philly after being out with an Achilles injury suffered in the 2011 playoffs; he came through with the long ball that helped the Phillies take the 3-2 win on the road and a victory for Phillies believers. With ace Roy Halladay and Howard back in the lineup to boost Philadelphia’s talent, a profitable run could be in its future. A playoff run? Not so much.
It’s going to be interesting to see who bettors choose as their go-to MLB wager to pair with the Yankees moving forward.
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