Analyze This: Red Sox, Giants Rule MLB Betting
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | July 6, 2012
When it comes to betting on baseball, the learning curve can be steep and valuable
The MLB betting story over these last few weeks at Bovada Sportsbook has been consistent and steady. Bettors steadily went all in on the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and Detroit’s reigning MVP Justin Verlander. Unfortunately, they quickly realized going “Top 40” on MLB wagers doesn’t guarantee at hit; this shifted bettors’ focus between June 25 and July 1 to a more analytical approach. Here’s how it played out on our end…
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“Example A” is the heavy wagering on the June 30 matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners. Both the Sox and Mariners sit at the bottom of the AL East and West respectively. However Boston, unlike Seattle, still has the talent to make things interesting and 94 percent of bettors had no
Making its first blip on the Bovada’s “most wagered” radar are the San Francisco Giants, and bettors picked an odd time to hop on the bandwagon. It was June 25, Game 1 of a three-game set with NL West leader and bitter rival the Los Angeles Dodgers. People go in comas watching these squads compete. Just a month before the bout, San Fran was 7.5 games back in the NL West, and they used their heralded pitching and timely bats to climb right back in the race — the team was rolling. That’s not to say bettors weren’t still on the fence. In the game 77 percent took the -1.5 runline at +180 while 66 percent went the other way, taking EVEN money on the Dodgers moneyline. But San Fran came through and jumped on L.A. early, scoring seven runs. Meanwhile, starting pitcher Barry Zito kicked a three-game slide by going seven innings of shutout ball.
The Giants swept the Dodgers then won their fourth straight versus the Cincinnati Reds, going 36 innings without allowing a run. So it was a no-brainer that 95 percent went Giants -1.5 at +135 while 86 percent took the moneyline at -166 versus Cincy on June 29. Plus, Matt Cain was on the mound, at home in San Fran for the first time since pitching a perfect game. But no matter the situation a good bet can’t last forever, his fate changed versus the Reds and bettors went down with the ship. His first post-Perfect pitch went deep, setting the tone for him getting smacked for five runs and 11 hits.
Despite the setback bettors appear to be broadening their MLB wagering palette, something that will pay off in the long run. It’s a long season; the Rangers and Yankees can’t win every game.
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