NFL FUTURES BETTING: Could Weather Derail Adrian Peterson’s Bid For Third Rushing Title In 2014?
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | August 22, 2014
Inclement weather certainly affects betting outcomes. The worse the weather, the worse the field conditions and the harder it is for offenses to put up big numbers. So by that same logic, the Minnesota Vikings All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson might be in for a tough 2014 campaign.
The Vikings are building a sparkling new stadium that won’t open until the 2016 season, and it has already has been awarded the 2018 Super Bowl. Rather than play the next two years in the ancient Metrodome, which has already imploded, the Vikings will play the following two years outdoors at the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium.
If you have never been to Minneapolis in the winter, it gets cold and snowy. Sometimes it makes Green Bay feel toasty. The Vikings are going to be playing in the elements from around November and onwards, and they have five home games in the second half of the season.
Peterson has benefited from playing at least eight games a season inside the Metrodome. Of course two years ago, he stole the NFL MVP from Peyton Manning by rushing for
2,097 yards; he was just eight shy of tying Eric Dickerson’s single-season record set in 1986 with the Rams. Peterson averaged a career-high 6.0 yards per carry in 2012 and 10 games with at least 100 yards. He also also won the rushing title in 2008.
Last year’s lousy quarterback play resulted in a drop in Peterson’s totals. He was limited to 14 games and finished with 1.266 yards, just 4.5 yards per carry, which was the second-worst of his career. That quarterback play probably won’t improve this year. Matt Cassel will begin the season as the starter, but rookie first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater should take over at some point. Despite that, Peterson is listed as the 4/1 favorite on Bovada’s prop to lead the league in rushing yards for 2014. There is also a prop on whether anyone will reach 2,000 yards: yes is a big +600 underdog, and no is at -1000. Only seven running backs have reached that target.
So far the player taking the heaviest action for leading the league in rushing yards is Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy at 9/2. Last year McCoy led the NFL with 1,607 yards, a career high and franchise best. He was the first Eagle to win the rushing title since Steve Van Buren way back in 1949. Chip Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense in Philly is built more for running than passes. McCoy should be a monster again in 2014 provided he stays healthy.
The third NFL betting favorite for rushing is Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles at 7/1. He finished third a year ago with 1,287 yards in 15 games. He was only 10th in the league with 259 carries. The Chiefs have to limit his carries because they often use him as a receiver as well. He led the Chiefs with 70 catches in 2013, and a running back can only take so much beating, especially one built as slight as the 5-foot-10, 199-pound Charles.
There’s a drop off after Charles to the next tier of backs: Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch (12/1), Washington’s Alfred Morris (16/1), Houston’s Arian Foster (16/1), Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy (18/1) and Chicago’s Matt Forte (18/1), who finished second to McCoy in rushing a season ago. One long shot taking sold action is Arizona’s Andre Ellington (40/1).