NFL Inception: On the Road Again
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | November 14, 2012
A lot of road favorites were available in Week 11, and bettors showed no fear in placing their bets. If there’s one thing any bettor should be cautious of, it’s betting on the road favorite. Being at home is a powerful perk for any NFL team, and generally makes a difference in box scores. For that reason the rule of thumb is generally buyer beware when any team, no matter how dominant, is favored to win on the road. However, looking at our Bovada Sportsbook numbers this week, bettors weren’t scared of road faves. Question is did it pay off?
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We start with the impressive Denver Broncos, -4.5 favorites at the struggling Carolina Panthers. It seems like more people are doing quarterback Cam Newton’s Superman pose than Newton himself, so it’s understandable that 85% trusted Peyton Manning to get the job done against the spread. Another 91% took Denver on the -210 moneyline.
It was a game where Manning didn’t have to do much. The defense and special teams controlled the contest early as Denver cruised to a 34-14 win. Bettors wagered on the Broncos and won three weeks in a row; it appears they’ve found a new favorite team to invest their money.
Next up was Manning’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts as -4 favorites at the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are horrible: they have no competent QB and are missing their starting running back, plus the defense isn’t good enough to make up for an offense that can’t control the clock. With red hot QB Andrew Luck coming to Thursday Night Football 74% of bettors took the Colts with no fear. Another 84% bet the -210 moneyline.
At halftime, this bet was pretty much in the bag. The Colts held the Jags D to only three points in the half, and second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert didn’t survive the whole contest. The Colts cruised to a 27-10 win and cover.
For two straight weeks, our top two bets have been the Broncos and Colts. We guess any team Manning touches does turn to gold.
Our third biggest bet is a surprising addition – the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys may be the most confusing wager this season. The only team that is a close second are the Philadelphia Eagles – good thing the ‘Boys were playing them. Dallas was a two-point favorite and bettors sided with them to not be the screw up on Sunday. Seventy-two percent bet on Dallas ATS.
After the first half, we have a feeling some nail biting went down. Eagles QB Michael Vick didn’t have a turnover and Philly trailed 10-7. However, Vick couldn’t survive the hard hits from the Cowboys defense and was taken out of the game, leaving it up to rookie QB Nick Foles to get the job done – and get the job done he didn’t. Foles’ pick six, and Foles’ fumble-turned-touchdown sealed the 38-23 win. With the Cowboys at the Cleveland Browns, bettors may trust the Cowboys two weeks in a row.
Though it seems to have worked the last three weeks in a row, we caution bettors that relying on road favorites to consistently cover is as trustworthy as playing the current stock market. However, you can’t seem to go wrong when the Broncos and Colts are involved.