NFL Player Props: Drew Brees Big Favorite to Win Third-Straight Passing Title
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Sept. 6, 2013
Are you still not convinced that the NFL offenses of today have rendered the running game as secondary and are pass-first? There have been six seasons in which a quarterback has thrown for 5,000 yards. The first happened in 1984 by 23-year-old, second-year Miami Dolphin Dan Marino.
The other five have all happened since 2008. The Saints’ Drew Brees has accounted for three of them, including an NFL-record 5,476 yards in 2011, and he’s the 11/4 Bovada NFL betting favorite to lead the league in passing for a third-straight year and fifth time overall.
Brees was the only one to top 5,000 in 2012, throwing for 5,177 yards despite the fact his head coach and arguably the NFL’s best offensive play-caller, Sean Payton, was suspended for the year for his role in the bountygate scandal. Payton’s back now. With his recent history, Brees seems a lock to become the fifth player in history to reach 50,000 career yards. He enters the season with 45,919, good for No. 8 on the career list. No Saint has ever won the NFL MVP – Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers won it in Brees’ record-setting 2011 season – and Brees is a 10/1 co-third favorite there.
Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is 6/1 to lead the league in passing yards. He threw for a franchise-record 5,038 yards in 2011 and was second to Brees last year with 4,967. Stafford also has the advantage of the NFL’s best receiver in Calvin Johnson. Stafford, the former No. 1 overall pick out of Georgia, attempted a whopping 727 passes in 2012, shattering the NFL record. No Lions quarterback in the Super Bowl era has led the league in passing or won an NFL MVP award. Stafford is 33/1 to do the latter.
The Packers’ Rodgers is 7/1 to lead the league in passing. His career-high of 4,643 came in his MVP season, and Rodgers threw for 4,295 yards in 2012. He did lead the NFL in quarterback rating for the second-straight year. Brett Favre, Green Bay’s starter before Rodgers, led the league in passing yards twice and holds the career mark with 71,838 yards. Rodgers is 13/2 to win another MVP.
Denver’s Peyton Manning is also 7/1 to throw for the most yards. Manning won the passing title in 2003 and 2000 with the Indianapolis Colts. His career high is 4,700 yards set in 2010, his last season in Indianapolis. Manning threw for 4,659 yards in his first season in Denver last year. The future Hall of Famer is a lock to pass Dan Marino for second on the all-time list this year. Marino is at 61,361 with Manning at 59,487. Manning already holds the NFL record with 74 games with at least three touchdown passes. He has won a record four NFL MVPs and was second to Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson in 2012. Manning is the 5/1 favorite this year.
New England’s Tom Brady (10/1) and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan (12/1) round out the favorites. Ryan had his best season in 2012 by throwing for 4,719 yards. He has one of the best receiving groups in the NFL in Julio Jones, Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Ryan is also 12/1 to win a first MVP.
Brady is the final member of that 5,000-yard club, throwing for 5,235 in 2011. A similar season could get him to 50,000 yards in 2012 as he sits at 44,806. Brady, who lost top targets Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez this offseason, is also 10/1 to win a third MVP award.