Super Bowl Odds: Live Betting on the Baltimore Offense
by Bovada Sportsbook Staff | Jan. 23, 2012
Super Bowl XLVII is available for Bovada Live Betting, and we analyze the Ravens’ possible game plan.
Though he’s still making the most noise, the “rah rah” Ray Lewis who could lead his defense to the promised land is an image best left in 2001. The 2012 Baltimore Ravens are led by offense, one that we expect to lean heavily on quarterback Joe Flacco in Super Bowl XLVII.
The transition from Lewis’ team to Flacco’s has been a bumpy one. The Ravens stumbled every time they relied on Flacco’s arm. When he passed it 40-plus times this year, his QB rating was in Mark Sanchez territory (71.7). In fact, Baltimore was accused of moving away from arguably the team’s best offensive player, running back Ray Rice. However head coach John Harbaugh found the real culprit, offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Harbaugh made the decision to axe Cameron after a Week 14 loss to Washington. Since the cut, the Ravens’ total yards increased to 417 from 344. Not only that, but the team is averaging nearly 31-points in the four games its starters played heavy minutes. The Flacco-leaning philosophy hasn’t changed, but new coordinator Jim Caldwell is obviously calling a better game.
Live Betting on the Offense
We expect the Ravens to try
to run the ball early, but we stress the word try. Rice has the most carries in the first quarter this season, averaging an effective 4.9 yards per carry in 2012. However, we expect San Francisco’s fourth-ranked defense to crush Caldwell’s confidence in the run. The 49ers have allowed only three RBs, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw, to crack 100-plus against them this season. Live bettors should try betting Rush early, and if the Ravens follow that game plan, then No Score isn’t a bad direction in much of the first. Keep in mind if Baltimore uses backup RB Bernard Pierce on a series or two, it doesn’t necessarily mean a change in philosophy. Pierce has increasingly taken carries from Rice since Caldwell took over as coordinator, and his North-South style could be a better fit versus San Francisco.
If the run game fails – and perhaps even if it doesn’t – starting in the second quarter it could quickly become Flacco’s game. Flacco has the most passes and the largest percentage of completions in the second quarter this season along with 11 of his 22 TDs. Caldwell has boosted the team’s confidence in the fourth-year signal caller by focusing on his big-play arm. Flacco had just two games with a 50-plus pass under Cameron’s lead; he’s gone deep three times in Caldwell’s six-game stint, including twice in the playoffs. Flacco and Caldwell don’t deserve all the credit, as nine-year veteran receiver Anquan Boldin is on fire, averaging 17.3 yards per catch in the playoffs. If Boldin finds receiving room versus the 49ers’ secondary, Flacco will keep feeding the beast and Pass Completion becomes a profitable wager.
If the Ravens smell the red zone on Super Bowl Sunday, don’t be scared to wager on Touchdown. In the red, Baltimore brings more heat than a Lewis pre-game rant, scoring on its last eight trips. With a 30-point playoff average Baltimore will make plays if the 49ers let them past the San Francisco 20-yard line.
Judging by the last handful of Super Bowls, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a down-the-stretch nail-biter.