Note: Daily picks will be taking a break from July 27-August 5
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
PICK: OVER 9.0 -110
HEDGE: CLEVELAND ML -125
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 1:10 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: MORTON (RHP) v ALLEN (LHP)
RESULT:
This afternoon’s matchup in Cleveland between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians presents a compelling case for the OVER 9.0 runs, driven by both the pitching matchup and favorable atmospheric conditions.
First, the weather in Cleveland is a significant factor. It’s hot and humid (86°F), with a consistent 10 mph wind blowing out. These conditions are conducive to extra-base hits and home runs, which will certainly help push the total over.
Now, let’s examine the starting pitching:
- Charlie Morton (BAL): At 41 years old, Morton (5-8, 6.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in 15 starts and 21 appearances) is clearly past his prime. His 2025 stats reflect a pitcher who is struggling to keep runs off the board. In his last outing on July 18th, he was shelled for 7 earned runs on 8 hits in just 5.1 innings. This kind of performance makes it highly likely he’ll give up runs, and potentially not pitch deep into the game, exposing the bullpen early.
- Logan Allen (CLE): Allen (6-8, 4.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 18 starts and 19 appearances) has been inconsistent in 2025. While his ERA is better than Morton’s, he’s allowed a .258 opponent batting average and has had outings where he gives up multiple runs. His last start on July 19th saw him surrender 3 earned runs on 8 hits over 5.1 innings. He’s been known to allow traffic on the bases, which, combined with the wind, can quickly translate into runs.
Adding to the potential for offense are the bullpens:
- The Baltimore Orioles bullpen has struggled in 2025, sporting a 4.80 ERA, among the higher marks in MLB. This means that once Morton exits, there’s a good chance the Guardians will continue to score. The O’s bullpen has an ERA of 9.79 over their last 3 games.
- The Cleveland Guardians bullpen has a more respectable 3.75 ERA, but even dominant bullpens can be vulnerable when asked to cover extended innings due to a starter’s early exit, or when facing a tired arm in a high-leverage situation in these conditions. If Allen can turn in a quality start, hedging the OVER with a play on Cleveland is a viable strategy.
Considering the weaather conditions, an aging and struggling Charlie Morton, an inconsistent Logan Allen, and bullpens that are not necessarily lockdown, the ingredients are all there for a game over the 9.0 run total.
ATHLETICS vs HOUSTON ASTROS
PICK: OVER 8.5 (-110)
UNITS: 4 BEST BET
FIRST PITCH: 8:10 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: SEVERINO (RHP) v ALEXANDER (RHP)
RESULT:
Pitching Matchup & Recent Form:
- Athletics: Luis Severino (3-11, 5.10 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 21 starts)
- Has allowed less than 5 runs in just 1 appearance in his last 5 outings
- Has allowed less than 5 runs in just 1 appearance in his last 5 outings
- Astros: Jason Alexander (1-0, 8.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in 6 appearances, 1 start)
- Very high ERA/WHIP in limited MLB innings.
Offensive Upside:
- Astros: Potent offense (.259 team BA vs RHP, 2nd in MLB), strong at home.
- Athletics: Capable of scoring (Avg. 4.2 runs/game; 134 HR, 7th in MLB). Alexander’s high ERA is an invitation.
- Both teams average 4.5 runs for versus RHP
Conclusion: Both starters are vulnerable and likely to give up runs and exit early, putting pressure on bullpens. Coupled with a potent Astros offense and the A’s ability to score against struggling pitching, plus hitter-friendly conditions in Houston, the OVER 8.5 runs is a strong play.
OTHER PLAYS
SAN DIEGO PADRES vs ST LOUIS CARDINALS
PICK: OVER 8(-120)
UNITS: 3
FIRST PITCH: 7:45 PM ET
PROBABLE STARTERS: DARVISH (RHP) v GRAY (RHP)
RESULT:
2025 SEASON RECORD
OVERALL 38-16
BEST BETS 22-8
NO LINES BELOW -140
DEFINITIONS
ML = MONEYLINE (Final winner of the game with no point spread)
RL = RUN LINE (Spread of 1.5 runs)
ADJUSTED RUN LINE / ALTERNATE RUN LINE – At Bovada, it’s called ALTERNATE RUN LINE and at BetOnline, it’s called the ADJUSTED RUN LINE. At Bovada, there are several options of spreads to choose from. At BOL, you get + or – 2.5 runs instead of the standard -1.5.
TT = Team Total
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